Invoices Down: What The Data Suggests About Economic Recovery

  • Date 22nd May 2020
  • Author Rob Mills
Invoices Down: What The Data Suggests About Economic Recovery

There has been a lot of talk about a V-shaped return to growth after the worst of the current crisis. However, data from MYOB, which has almost 1 million subscribers across a range of industries, suggests a more subdued return to growth.

The Data

Invoices

What companies are issuing for work/expenses recently undertaken on the behalf of others. Declines may cause cashflow issues later on, as it will reduce deposits/income on later dates.

Diagram showing weekly invoices for different industries

Source: Sydney Morning Herald

Deposits

Money/transactions coming into the business. Delays between invoices and deposit (payments) are likely due to payment terms and late payments.

Diagram showing the number of deposits across different industries

Source: Sydney Morning Herald

It’s worth noting these are counts, not volumes, so it doesn’t give any indication of the total value of the invoices/deposits. There may also be a difference in whether invoices are pre-payment or post-payment for work/expenses, which may be typical for certain industries, which makes it tough to compare verticals.

What this means

This data suggests a more W shape for some types of business due to the knock-on effect of cashflow on decision making. We’re seeing this in a number of clients, where initial sales were strong, but more recently have dropped significantly. This lack of consistency and predictability is likely to drive more uncertainty than confidence, which could mean a wobbly bounce back, even for those organisations in a more comfortable financial situation. 

Disclaimer: Rob is not an economist and takes no responsibility for your poor investment choices, or even his own.

Header Image Credit: Freddie Collins

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